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CARNIVAL PLC (CUK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 revenue of $5.81B, operating income of $543M, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.205B; adjusted EPS of $0.13 and net loss of $(0.06) due to $252M debt extinguishment costs .
  • Strong demand drove net yields +7.3% YoY (constant currency), beating December guidance by 270 bps; FY25 guidance raised: net yields +4.7% (cc), adjusted EBITDA ~$6.7B, adjusted net income ~$2.49B .
  • Balance sheet progress and capital structure simplification: $5.5B refinancing, annualized interest savings of $145M, average cash interest rate cut to 4.6%; total debt reduced to $27.0B .
  • Street comparison: Q1 beat on EPS ($0.13 vs $0.02), revenue ($5.81B vs $5.74B), and EBITDA ($1.20B vs $1.06B); breadth of outperformance implies upward estimate revisions for FY25 yields and interest expense*.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record net yields and onboard revenue strength; “exceptional close-in demand that exceeded expectations for both ticket prices and onboard spending” — CEO Josh Weinstein .
  • Q1 operating income nearly doubled YoY (+$267M), adjusted EBITDA up 38% YoY; margins exceeded 2019 levels .
  • Debt profile actions: $5.5B opportunistic refinancing delivering $145M annual interest savings and reducing debt by $0.5B; Moody’s upgrade with positive outlook — CFO David Bernstein .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss of $(78)M driven by $252M debt extinguishment/modification costs; otherwise adjusted net income was +$174M .
  • Liquidity down to $3.77B from $4.16B at FY-end; cash and equivalents declined to $833M from $1,210M .
  • Q2 cost outlook: adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel per ALBD up ~5.5% YoY primarily from higher dry-dock days, creating near-term cost pressure .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$7.896 $5.938 $5.810
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$2,178 $561 $543
Net Income ($USD Millions)$1,735 $303 $(78)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.26 $0.23 $(0.06)
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$1,751 $186 $174
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($USD)$1.27 $0.14 $0.13
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$2,822 $1,220 $1,205
Gross Margin Yield YoY (%)+19% +20% +25%
Net Yields per ALBD ($USD)$233.87 $190.53 $184.95
Occupancy (%)112% 103% 103%
KPIsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Passenger Cruise Days (PCDs, Millions)28.1 24.6 24.3
ALBDs (Millions)25.2 23.9 23.6
Passengers (Millions)3.9 3.3 3.2
Fuel Consumption (MMT)0.7 0.7 0.7
Fuel per 1,000 ALBDs (MT)29.5 30.4 30.3
Fuel Cost per MT (ex-EUA, $USD)$670 $618 $643
Q1 2025 vs Wall Street ConsensusConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.02*$0.13 +$0.11*
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.743*$5.810 +$0.067*
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.0568*$1.196 +$0.1392*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Dec 20, 2024)Current Guidance (Mar 21, 2025)Change
Net Yields (YoY, constant currency)FY 2025~+4.2% ~+4.7% Raised
Adjusted Cruise Costs ex-Fuel per ALBD (YoY, cc)FY 2025~+3.7% ~+3.8% Slightly Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025~$6.6 ~$6.7 Raised
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025~$2,305 ~$2,490 Raised
Interest Expense, net ($USD Billions)FY 2025~$1.50 ~$1.40 Lowered
Adjusted EPS - Diluted ($USD)FY 2025~$1.70 ~$1.83 Raised
ALBDs (Millions)FY 202596.3 96.2 Maintained
Fuel Cost per MT (ex-EUA)FY 2025$617 $617 Maintained
Near-Term GuidancePeriodCurrent Guidance
Net Yields (YoY, cc)Q2 2025~+4.4%
Adjusted Cruise Costs ex-Fuel per ALBD (YoY, cc)Q2 2025~+5.5% (higher dry-dock days)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)Q2 2025~$1.32
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)Q2 2025~$285
Interest Expense, net ($USD Billions)Q2 2025~$0.33
Fuel Expense incl. EUA ($USD Billions)Q2 2025~$0.48

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev-2)Q4 2024 (Prev-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Demand & PricingRecord demand; net yields +8.7% (cc); net per diems +5.9% (cc) Record booked position; FY25 price & occupancy at all-time highs Net yields +7.3% (cc) vs PY; booking curve furthest out on record; prices at historical highs Improving/stable at high levels
Onboard RevenueMid-single digit onboard growth (cc) Higher onboard spending drove Q4 beat Continued strength in onboard revenue contributes to outperformance Positive
Cost DisciplineAdjusted cruise costs ex-fuel per ALBD decreased vs PY in Q3 (cc) Q4 ex-fuel per ALBD up 7.4% YoY; better than guidance Q1 ex-fuel per ALBD +1.0% YoY (cc), better than Dec guidance; Q2 outlook +5.5% YoY Mixed: near-term cost uptick (dry-dock)
Leverage & RefinancingCredit upgrades (S&P, Moody’s); liquidity $4.5B; net debt/EBITDA approaching 4.5x Interest expense expected >$200M lower in 2025 vs 2024 $5.5B refinanced; $145M annual interest savings; avg cash interest rate 4.6%; debt $27.0B Improving
Sustainability & FleetShore power expansion; LNG ships; biofuel pilots 10 LNG ships; shore power on >2/3 fleet; food waste -44% vs 2019 Denali Lodge investment; partnerships (HISTORY); fleet sale (Seabourn Sojourn) Continued execution
Destinations/ProductHalf Moon Cay expansion; Celebration Key progress Celebration Key operating costs cited in FY25 cost outlook Celebration Key highlighted in marketing; record booking volumes for 2026+ Building

Management Commentary

  • “This was across the board and led by incredibly strong demand… exceptional close-in demand that exceeded expectations for both ticket prices and onboard spending.” — CEO Josh Weinstein .
  • “We are still taking up our earnings expectations for the year… affirming our December yield guidance for the remainder of 2025… booking curve continues to be the farthest out on record, at record prices (in constant currency).” — CEO Josh Weinstein .
  • “During the quarter we stepped up our refinancing efforts… delivered an incremental $145 million in annualized interest expense savings… reduced our average cash interest rate to 4.6 percent.” — CFO David Bernstein .

Q&A Highlights

  • The call was scheduled at 10:00 a.m. EDT on March 21, 2025; the full transcript was not available in the document catalog for CUK, so Q&A specifics could not be evaluated .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 results exceeded Street across EPS, revenue, and EBITDA: EPS $0.13 vs $0.02; revenue $5.81B vs $5.74B; EBITDA $1.20B vs $1.06B, supported by yields and onboard strength; breadth of beats suggests upside bias to FY25 net yield and interest expense assumptions*.
  • With FY25 guidance raised (net yields +4.7% cc, EBITDA ~$6.7B, net income ~$2.49B) and interest expense lowered to ~$1.40B, consensus models likely need to incorporate stronger pricing, robust booking curve, and lower financing costs .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Demand/pricing momentum is durable: net yields +7.3% YoY (cc) and booking curve at record length underpin raised FY25 guidance — a positive catalyst for revisions .
  • Operational execution translating to margins: operating income nearly doubled YoY; adjusted EBITDA +38% YoY; margins above 2019 levels, supporting multi-year earnings durability .
  • Balance sheet de-risking continues: $5.5B refinancing and $145M annual interest savings lower the cost of capital and improve EPS trajectory .
  • Near-term cost headwinds manageable: Q2 ex-fuel costs per ALBD +5.5% YoY on dry-dock days; yield growth expected to outpace cost growth, sustaining margin expansion .
  • Guidance raise is meaningful: FY25 adjusted net income up ~$185M vs December; EBITDA up ~$100M; signals management confidence and strong demand elasticity .
  • Liquidity/cash trends to watch: liquidity at $3.77B and cash at $833M; monitor seasonal troughs and capex cadence ($2.9B total FY25 capex guidance as of Dec, updated to $2.9B remainder in Mar) .
  • Monitor macro/geopolitical/FX risks flagged by management that could affect demand, fuel costs, and itineraries; current booking/inventory posture suggests resilience .